Government Intervention

Government intervention in housing could prolong the residential real estate downturn by as long as two years, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist Mark Vitner told a gathering of real estate executives in Bonita Springs.
Vitner, speaking to a meeting of the Urban Land Institute recently, says the first-time homebuyer tax credits was a temporary salve and the states’ attorneys general action against lenders in the foreclosure process will further delay housing’s recovery.
“Most builders are going into survival mode again,” says Vitner, a longtime observer of the Florida economy. “Housing prices are likely headed lower.”
By contrast, the government hasn’t interfered as much in the commercial real estate market, allowing market forces to clear problems more quickly. “I feel much better about commercial real estate than residential real estate,” Vitner says.
The big price declines in commercial real estate have already occurred and a variety of sectors are already seeing improvements in vacancies and rents, from apartments to hotels, offices and warehouses. “The attitude of the leaders in the industry was more upbeat than anytime I can recall,” Vitner says of a recent meeting with commercial real estate leaders in New York City.
The delayed recovery in the housing markets means construction jobs won’t be returning soon. Florida’s large supply of low-skilled workers will have to be retrained for other jobs, so it probably will lag the nation in employment creation.
But don’t look for health-care jobs to pick up the slack in real estate, Vitner cautions. Government health care reform won’t help Florida because legislators’ demand for greater efficiency and lower reimbursements means providers won’t hire as many people. “Health care reform will limit job growth here,” he says.
Two areas that show promise are exports and international tourism, which explains why Miami and Orlando are faring better than other parts of the state. Vitner says retail sales in those two areas are now rising above pre-recession levels.
The consequences of the real estate bust are far reaching. For example, loans will continue to be difficult to obtain in Florida because most of the collateral is real estate. The real estate collapse wrecked Floridians’ balance sheets and lenders are reluctant to make loans if the future of the real estate collateral is uncertain, Vitner says.
“If you think debt is hard to get now, wait until after Dodd-Frank takes place,” Vitner says, referring to the financial reform legislation passed by Democrats last year. “Credit trends are still pretty weak.”
However, the improvement in commercial real estate may provide some cushion. “We’re very near the end of the price declines,” Vitner says. That could temper concerns about the wave of commercial real estate loan refinancing that has worried economists in recent years.
The problem with commercial real estate in this recession wasn’t oversupply. Rather, lack of demand caused its troubles. “That shoe’s already dropped,” Vitner says.
While fears of a dip back to recession have been eased by monetary intervention by the Federal Reserve, many challenges conspire to make business owners uneasy about spending money on new equipment and employees. Uncertainty over future tax rates, budget deficits and inflation are big worries, Vitner says. “The reason companies are holding cash is they see the economy is risky,” he says.
 

Tampa Home Prices - New Lows

TAMPA - Tampa and seven other major metropolitan areas hit new lows for home price in November. Prices are at their lowest levels since prices peaked in 2006.
Home prices in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan area fell 0.8 percent from the previous month and 4.0 percent from the same period a year ago, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller, 20-city home price index, released Tuesday.
That follows October's "new low" for the area, when prices fell 0.9 percent from the previous month and 3.6 percent from the same period a year ago.
Atlanta, Charlotte, N.C., Las Vegas, Miami, Portland, Ore., Seattle and Detroit also hit new low. Detroit saw the largest drop at 2.7 percent from the previous month.
Overall, the 20-city home price index fell 1 percent in November from October. All but one city, San Diego, recorded monthly price declines. Four of the major metros - Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. - showed yearly gains.
"With these numbers, more analysts will be calling for a double-dip in home prices," said David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's Index Committee.
The data is not surprising. Economists have said the end of the year remained sluggish for real estate.
Millions of foreclosures nationwide continued to force prices down. Some buyers still held off, waiting for prices to bottom.
Many analysts expect Tampa area home prices to keep falling through the first half of the year and bottom during the third quarter

Skypoint tower's retail space fills up

TAMPA - Downtown real estate executives are celebrating after filling up the ground floor of the Skypoint condo tower.
Taps, Five Guys, the Point, Kurdi's Fresh Mediterranean Grill and Pizza Fusion have moved into the tower, and the 9,700 square feet of space for the tenants has been sold to a group of local investors.
Lane Witherspoon & Carswell Commercial Real Estate Advisors brokered a deal to sell the retail spaces as a group from Skypoint developer Novare Group Holdings to Hachem Investments Inc. of Tampa for an undisclosed sum.
"This sale reflects confidence in the ongoing growth of downtown Tampa in general, and the River Arts District in particular," said Lane Witherspoon's director of retail sales Paul Royak.
Completed in 2007, the 32-story Skypoint tower was one of the few condo towers in Tampa Bay to sell most of its residential units.

Office Deals Continue

As year-end deals continue to close out, more real estate buyers are announcing that they have spent millions of dollars on Tampa Bay area office space and surrounding property. In New Port Richey, California-based Jefferson-Pilot Investments bought the Trinity Village Center for $9.5 million. The property is a 71,990-square-foot shopping center, with Crispers, Five Guys Hamburgers and Bonefish Grill among its tenants. At the time of closing, the center was 78% leased.
In Tampa’s Westshore submarket, Raleigh, N.C.-based Highwoods Properties Inc. bought 44 acres of land for $17.6 million. The purchase is composed of two parts: $4.9 million spent on 33 acres of undeveloped land, and $12.7 million for a 117,000-square-foot vacant office building on 11 acres.
With the transaction, Highwoods now owns or has an interest in 14 Westshore office buildings, representing 2.2 million of the submarket’s 11.2 million square feet of office space.